Optimising Disaster Resilience Through Advanced is the central topic of this scientific publication.

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the financial factors and risk management strategies essential for optimizing disaster resilience within the Serbian defence industry’s critical infrastructure. The significance of this sector is multi-faceted, impacting national security, economic stability, and technological advancement. Primarily, the Serbian defence industry ensures the preservation of vital defence interests, maintaining Serbia’s independence from foreign sources for weapons and military equipment in both peacetime and wartime. Economically, it is a significant employer of the working-age population, directly affecting local employment rates, fostering economic development, and ensuring the sustainable growth of this crucial sector. This, in turn, stimulates broader economic activity and enhances social cohesion while strengthening the national balance of payments through increased export potential. From a technological perspective, the defence industry drives scientific, technological, and industrial development, reinforcing Serbia’s global political and military standing within the Western Balkans and on the international stage. Consequently, the paper aims to examine the risk management and protection of the Serbian defence industry’s critical infrastructure, offering concrete and actionable measures to improve and develop these systems with a particular emphasis on security. The research’s utility and contribution lie in identifying similarities and differences in the operational performance of defence industry companies, a vital segment of the national economy. The presentation of these findings focuses on the protection of critical infrastructure. The results will form the basis for further investigation into the underlying causes of business performance and the effective management of critical infrastructure security.

Conclusions

The impact of infrastructure disruption is typically quantified in terms of aggregated figures that represent economic losses. This approach allows policymakers to evaluate various disruption scenarios, including cascading effects across sectors, and to assess the costs and benefits of mitigation measures (Giannopoulos et al., 2012). A comprehensive risk assessment is achievable when the impact data is combined with the likelihood of these scenarios. Without this information, the analysis remains an impact assessment and cannot effectively prioritize risk mitigation measures, especially for High Impact Low Probability (HILP) events. A significant challenge for risk assessment methodologies is to address these gaps and develop a harmonized framework at the national level, extending to the defense industry. Such a framework should accurately capture interdependencies across different infrastructures, sectors, and borders—a critical requirement for the West Balkan countries in coordination with EU critical infrastructure policies and strategies. Additionally, there must be consensus on a common risk metric across sectors. In summary, risk assessment for critical infrastructures should be an integral part of a broader framework, with resilience analysis as the primary tool. The continuation of this work at the national level in Serbia should focus on proposing a resilience assessment framework for critical infrastructures, where risk assessment serves as a subset to bridge the gaps identified in this research. The social and economic stability of the world now heavily relies on the reliable supply of basic goods and services, transported and distributed through extensive technological network infrastructures. National security today depends significantly on these capacities, including the smooth functioning of the defense industry’s complexes, as seen in Serbia. These critical infrastructures are subject to potential disruptive factors from hazardous natural and human environments, such as the global political climate, human capital, financial crises, severe damage, explosions in warehouses, and organized (cyber) crime or cyber warfare (Zio, 2016). The infrastructure systems within the Serbian defense industry are exposed to numerous external and internal influences, creating a potential base from which dangerous hazards and harmful events can quickly and globally spread throughout the system. This has increased systemic risk exposure, characterized by cascading failures that can significantly impact both national and regional levels. Indeed, significant disruptions have highlighted the need for the protection and resilience of critical infrastructures as a national and international priority. In conclusion, the integrity, economic, and security stability of Serbia is closely tied to the state and developmental potential of the defense industry. Its rapid development and integration into national and international economic flows, through the acquisition of new technologies, has been recognized as a vital element of Serbia’s national security policy. Aligning with European standards and regulations, and establishing preventive and control mechanisms for critical defense infrastructure, are fundamental prerequisites for maintaining the integrity of defense, security, and foreign policy interests, as well as enhancing the overall credibility of Serbia. Given the context of global, regional, and internal threats, developing adequate mechanisms for the protection of critical infrastructure has become a national security priority for Serbia.

How to cite

Reference – Vidović, N., Beriša, H., & Cvetković, V. M. (2024). Optimising Disaster Resilience Through Advanced Risk Management and Financial Analysis of Critical Infrastructure in the Serbian Defence Industry. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202407.1228.v1