Spatio-temporal analysis of flood events is the central topic of this scientific publication.
Abstract
The subject of this research is the analysis of flood dynamics in the Ukrina River Basin, Bosnia and Herzegovina, using a remote sensing-based approach and geographic information systems during the period 2016–2019. The aim is to identify the spatial and temporal patterns of floods by integrating satellite-derived precipitation data, hydrological data, and Sentinel-1 imagery processed through Google Earth Engine. The methodology included the use of CHIRPS precipitation data and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for identifying meteorological anomalies, while Sentinel-1 SAR data were used to map flood extent based on radar backscatter change detection. The approach combined temporal analysis with spatial overlays of land use and administrative boundaries to assess affected areas. Flood events were identified in January 2016 (89.98 ha), March 2017 (179.85 ha), March 2018 (58.81 ha), and May 2019 (195.38 ha), coinciding with periods of above-average precipitation (>125%), positive SPI values, and elevated water levels. The spatial analysis of flooded areas, overlaid with land use data, revealed that agricultural land was the most affected category, with 79.21 ha flooded in 2016, 169.15 ha in 2017, 48.89 ha in 2018, and 184.90 ha in 2019. Built-up areas were also significantly impacted, posing risks to infrastructure and economic stability. The cities and municipalities of Derventa, Prnjavor, and Stanari were most frequently affected by floods during the study period. The findings highlight the role of cumulative precipitation and hydrological conditions in triggering flood events and provide insights for flood risk management, including adaptive strategies, early warning, and sustainable land use planning.
Conclusions
This research demonstrated the effectiveness of integrating Sentinel-1 SAR data, CHIRPS precipitation estimates, SPI index values, and hydrological information for identifying and ana- lyzing flood events in the Ukrina River Basin during 2016–2019. The remote sensing-based approach enabled the detection of flooded areas in January 2016, March 2017 and 2018, and May 2019. Among the different land use types, agri- cultural areas were the most affected, which is consistent with their spatial concentration in lowland zones along river corridors.
The results highlight the potential of remote sensing and GIS tools to improve flood monitoring in areas where ground-based hydrometeorological infrastructure is lim- ited. By combining flood extent data with administrative boundaries and land use layers, we identified both vulner- able land categories and population exposure. This spatial information can assist decision-makers in prioritizing flood protection measures, infrastructure investment, and adaptation planning.
Nevertheless, the study has certain limitations. The spatial resolution of Sentinel-1 imagery (10 m) may not detect localized flood events in small or narrow flood- plains. The temporal resolution of satellite imagery (typi- cally 6–12 days) may result in missed events or delayed mapping, especially during short-duration floods. Additionally, the absence of active HSs within the Ukrina River Basin limits the ability to validate flood peaks and water discharge directly, relying instead on proxy data from nearby stations. The land use dataset (CLC 2018) may also not fully capture land cover changes during the entire study period. Moreover, the adopted methodology, based on coinciding meteorological and hydrological indi- cators, may overlook certain flood events triggered by rapid runoff over dry antecedent soils. Such events, while lacking pronounced cumulative wetness, can still pose sig- nificant flood hazards due to reduced infiltration capacity. Future research could address this by incorporating satel- lite-derived soil moisture products (e.g., SMAP or ASCAT), which would enable a more comprehensive assessment of antecedent conditions and improve the accuracy of flood detection under diverse hydrometeorological scenarios. Also, future research should focus on integrating higher- resolution satellite products (e.g., Sentinel-2 or commercial imagery), as well as topographic data such as DEMs, to refine floodplain delineation and hydrological modeling. Expanding the analysis toward multi-hazard assessment (including droughts and wildfires) would contribute to the development of an integrated risk management system in the Ukrina River Basin. The presented results form a valuable foundation for designing adaptive land use policies and improving local flood preparedness through spa- tially informed early warning systems.
How to cite
Sabljić, L., Lukić, T., Bajić, D., Marković, S., Spalevic, V., Cvetković, V., Delić, D., Adžić, D., Aleksova, B., Milevski, I. & Srzentić, G. (2025). Spatio-temporal analysis of flood events using GIS and remote sensing-based approach in the Ukrina River Basin, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Open Geosciences, 17(1), 20250856.
